The Wayanad landslides on July 30th created ripples of shock and helplessness through the country. The district which had received less than average rainfall until the 29th of July was suddenly inundated with a catastrophic 572 mm of rain falling over just a 24 hour period. (This was on the 30th and 31st of July. Incidentally, the meteorological department had predicted rainfall of 64-124 mm for that same period). Experts believe that the soil had already been destabilised by the deluge just before the period of the landslides and the cumulative impact of extraordinary rainfall over just a few days exacerbated the damage. The landslides impacted nearly eight square kilometres of area, with about 400 dead and at least 150 people reported missing immediately after the disaster. The villages of Chooralmala, Mundakkai and Meppadi bore the brunt of the disaster, with large-scale evacuations of survivors into safer locations.
Who is responsible?
The Western Ghats are a unique feature of the Indian subcontinent. The mountain range is older than the Himalayas, and contains an incredibly diverse ecosystem. It is therefore designated as a biodiversity hotspot. The mountains impact climatic conditions, especially rainfall and monsoon patterns of several southern states. Despite these remarkable characteristics, what the mountains have really become known for is the unregulated mining of mineral resources; deforestation; large scale monocropping; tourism and related human activities- each of which threaten the integrity of the range.
It was with a view to mitigate such threats that expert committees were formed (namely, those headed by Madhav Gadgil, and K. Kasturirangan) to recommend conservation proposals. But the recommendations were objected to by the concerned States. It was also alleged that they failed to accept the warnings of other research on the mountain range.
On the basis of this, some say that it was the Kerala government who was solely responsible for the landslide. Others say that heavy rainfall, and consecutively, landslides in uninhabited areas went on to damage human settlements, and that this is a natural disaster that could not have been averted. However, they also add that the heavy loss of life and property was from human interference/development, both legal and illegal, which brought about large-scale changes to the sensitive slopes.
The impact of climate change
Data shows that the number of extreme weather events around the world increased by 83% in the period between 2000-2019 compared to that between 1981-1999. These disasters have resulted in a loss of nearly 10 lakh human lives and an economic loss of Rs 1.5 lakh crore, with many experts saying that extreme weather events caused by climate change are the catalyst in such disasters. Based on this, laying the blame on the Kerala government and the people of the state is unscientific and possibly constitutes opportunistic politics. (The driver of climate change is excessive carbon emissions and the consequent global warming).
With many countries with very low per capita carbon emissions, such as Pakistan, Madagascar, Somalia and Sudan, facing extreme rainfall, storms, and droughts, it is clear that there is little correlation between local emission levels, and their frequency of extreme weather events. For example, there are several small island nations which are reeling from the effects of sea level rise. It is the unbridled carbon emissions from large factories and cities somewhere far removed from the location of a disaster that is actually responsible for it. According to one estimate, European and North American countries alone account for 62% of carbon emissions. However, it is becoming increasingly common to find that the victims of climate change are often, not the offenders; moreover, they are often also the ones with the least resilience to recover from these disasters.
That is why the debate about the importance of creating an International Loss and Damage Fund aimed at helping economically disadvantaged countries face the effects of climate change has gained momentum. Originally mooted as a concept in 1991, a platform was set up in 2013 to discuss this through the Warsaw International Mechanism. The concept was subsequently included in the Paris Agreement in 2015, and at the Glasgow summit in 2021, developed countries agreed to contribute to the fund. The fund was officially established at the COP27 conference in 2022. Currently, discussions on the functioning of the fund, contributors and beneficiaries continue.
The way forward in Wayanad
The Kerala government has requested that the Union government declare the landslide as a national calamity. This is an important first step for required funds to be made available for restoration and rehabilitation of affected areas and families. As the impacts of climate change become increasingly frequent, India needs its own damage fund, similar to the International Loss and Damage Fund, in addition to the existing National Disaster Relief Fund.
As climate change marches on, we become helplessly aware that we cannot prevent extreme weather events. However, its impact can be minimised through necessary mitigative and adaptive measures. These measures need to go beyond just engineering and technology developments. These must include uncompromising enforcement of environmental protection measures.
This piece first appeared in the Tamil Hindu in August 2024.