Another COP (Conference of Parties) comes and goes, leaving in its wake the familiar aftermath of frustration and unmet expectations. Once again, promises were made, but the gap between words and actions feels wider than ever as COP summits often seem mired in speeches and declarations, with little to show in terms of tangible, transformative outcomes. Why does it feel like we are perpetually stuck in a cycle of too little - too late, while the clock on climate action ticks relentlessly?
Let us decode the outcomes of COP29 and uncover whether this hyped summit, burdened with enormous expectations, holds any salvageable value amidst the clamour for meaningful climate action.
Oil-producing nations dominate
COP29 began with criticism over the absence of heads of state from the top 13 emitting countries, which were responsible for approximately 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023. The call to transition away from coal, oil and gas during COP28 in Dubai marked a significant milestone, as it was the first time 200 nations, including major fossil fuel producers like Saudi Arabia and the US, collectively acknowledged the necessity of phasing down fossil fuels. However, the COP29 climate summit revealed the growing influence of oil-producing nations in shaping global climate negotiations. Host nation Azerbaijan, where oil accounts for 90% of exports, set the tone by emphasising its petroleum wealth, reflecting the entrenched priorities of fossil fuel-dependent economies. COP 29 also saw a rejection of the previous call to transition away from fossil fuels, underscoring that the power dynamics favoured fossil fuel interests. This shift, driven by oil-exporting countries and their allies, has raised concerns about a regression in global climate action. The need to recalibrate the influence of oil-producing nations and hold corporations accountable for climate damage has become increasingly urgent to prevent further setbacks in climate action.
Climate finance: A persistent stalemate
The negotiations at Baku faced a critical stalemate over climate finance commitments. Developing nations highlighted the pressing need for substantial financial support to meet their climate goals and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Proposals on the table included mobilizing 1.3 trillion USD annually for developing nations and transferring 250 billion USD annually from developed to developing countries by 2035. This was proposed by developing nations as the required global amount to be mobilized to help them meet their climate goals. However, the tentative pledge of 300 billion USD annually from developed nations fell far behind these demands; additionally, scepticism surrounds the enforceability of this plan, as it hinges on voluntary contributions instead of binding commitments.
It appears that there will be significant gaps in the estimated 7 trillion USD required globally to meet the targets outlined as per the current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). (This global financial requirement pledged under the Paris Agreement encompasses both developed and developing nations' efforts to achieve their promised climate actions). This impasse reflects systemic inadequacies, with current policies likely to result in a 2.7°C temperature rise, far exceeding the Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C.
Criticism intensified as developed nations sought to shift financial responsibilities to emerging economies like China and India, raising concerns over equity under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Meanwhile, adaptation funding remains marginalised, neglecting the critical needs of vulnerable regions. This ongoing trust deficit between developed and developing nations continues to hinder meaningful progress on climate action.
Article 6 and carbon markets
Progress was made on establishing a carbon market under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, introducing two pathways for trading carbon offsets. Article 6.2 allows countries to create bilateral trading agreements tailored to their needs, while Article 6.4 proposes a centralised, UN-managed system enabling countries and companies to trade and offset emissions. This allows wealthy, high-emission countries to purchase carbon offsets from developing nations. These credits are generated through activities like reforestation, protecting carbon sinks and transitioning to clean energy.
Supporters argue that this could bring essential investment to developing countries. However, it is highly doubtful that carbon credits will work, even with proper safeguards in place. Such systems only serve to delay meaningful climate action and promote greenwashing, providing major polluters with a convenient way to avoid actual emissions reductions while undermining the urgency and credibility of global climate efforts.
Progress on Loss and Damage fund
At COP29, significant progress was made towards fully operationalising the Loss and Damage Fund, a vital initiative for countries most vulnerable to climate change, including small island states, least developed countries, and African nations.
The Fund, initially agreed upon at COP27 and activated during COP28, aims to provide financial support to these nations facing severe climate impacts. After intense negotiations, the COP29 Presidency, alongside key stakeholders like the World Bank and the Fund's Board, took crucial steps to make the fund fully operational. Over 730 million USD has already been pledged to support the Fund, which is set to begin financing climate-related projects as early as 2025
The all-important methane pledge
The Reducing Methane from Organic Waste Declaration launched at COP29, marks a significant commitment from over 30 countries, collectively responsible for nearly 50% of global methane emissions from organic waste. This pledge focuses on curbing emissions from organic waste sources like landfills and food waste through measures such as improved waste management, composting and methane capture technologies
By integrating these targets into NDCs, the initiative aligns with broader goals under the Global Methane Pledge to significantly cut methane emissions by 2030. The success of this initiative will however rely on effective implementation and cooperation among governments, private sectors, and communities globally.
Looking ahead to COP30
As COP29 concludes, the focus shifts to COP30 in Belem, Brazil, where key issues are expected to be addressed. These include implementing the Global Stocktake recommendations to align NDCs with the Paris Agreement's goals and expanding climate finance through the "Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3 trillion USD." This comes amid differing views on the results achieved at COP29.
The world cannot afford another year of deferred decisions. Transformational climate action demands not only promises but clear roadmaps, substantial investments, and unwavering accountability. The fight for a livable planet continues and the baton now passes to COP30. It must rise to the challenge of delivering equitable, enforceable and impactful outcomes that match the urgency of the climate crisis. The ticking of time echoes louder with each passing day, as the planet’s future hangs in the balance on the edge of delay.